It has been a rough year to be in the inflation forecasting business. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently admitted to having a hazy crystal ball on the topic, and fed officials have done the same. International experts have fared no differently. In early 2021 International Monetary Fund (IMF) economists were forecasting low inflation risk. By the end of the year, they were forecasting that inflation would subside soon. By this month, the IMF twitter account had posted a social media-short “Jargone” explainer video titled “What is Stagflation?”
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